Extreme precipitation risk in Beijing, 1960–2024
Both tails are heavy (ξ > 0). The 100-year daily rainfall lands between 245 mm (GEV) and 298 mm (POT–GPD); the threshold model is the more conservative guide for flood planning.
Researcher /
data scientist /
visual maker
Seeing society
through data.
I study society, cities, and risk through data. Trained in actuarial science and computational social science, I build statistical models, maps, and interactive tools, and publish the results as papers, visualizations, and short films.
Open to data science, actuarial & risk analytics roles.
Capabilities
What I work with.
Five things I do repeatedly, the methods behind each, and the projects on this page that show them.
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Statistical modelling
GLMs · extreme value theory (GEV, POT–GPD) · Bayesian MCMC · Double LASSO · regression discontinuity · R, Python
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Spatial analysis
POI & hexagonal grids · OpenStreetMap routing · geocoding & historical gazetteers · dialect-distance clustering
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Networks & historical data
CBDB · Ming Qing Women’s Writings · record linkage · network construction and centrality · descriptive statistics across dynasties
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Visualization & motion
Canvas / D3 interactives · scroll-driven maps · Blender shaded relief · FFmpeg render pipelines · Skyfield ephemerides
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AI-assisted practice
Coding agents from prototype to release · data preparation and validation scripts · AI-drafted composition, hand-finished cartography
Selected work
Highlight projects.
Six projects across papers, maps, urban data, and motion. Everything else is in the archive below.
On-chain and off-chain vote divergence in DAOs
229 proposals across Uniswap, Arbitrum, Gitcoin, and Optimism. Governance effects persist, but divergence between the two votes weakens the value governance creates.
Women poets and literary recognition in imperial China
443 poets, CBDB × MQWW. Non-kin social ties, not kinship, predicted publishing an individual collection: one s.d. more social degree roughly doubled the odds (OR ≈ 2.06), while the kinship effect was not distinguishable from zero.
Interactive ↗
Journeys of Tang & Song poets
Where 360 poets actually went: some 14,000 recorded stops traced on a paper-textured map, scroll by scroll.
Moon calendar 2026
Summer solstice to the Mid-Autumn full moon: the moon’s phase over Hong Kong, the solar terms, and a rolling 24-hour tide at Quarry Bay.
Why does everywhere feel far away in Beijing?
Beijing inside the Fifth Ring vs. Shanghai inside the Outer Ring: services are more dispersed, population and commerce less aligned, and 10,000 sampled routes detour further.
Archive
Everything else.
All research, writing, visual work, and tools, in compact form. Chinese articles open with an English preview.
Research & writing 8
- PaperOn-chain and off-chain vote divergence in DAOsRegression discontinuity · 229 proposals · four DAOs
- PaperExtreme precipitation risk in Beijing, 1960–2024GEV vs. POT–GPD · 99% VaR / ES · 100-year return level 245–298 mm
- PaperWomen poets and literary recognition in imperial ChinaCBDB × MQWW · Double LASSO · Bayesian MCMC — non-kin social ties, not kinship, predicted recognition
- ArticleGaode POI · 400 m hex grids · OSM routing · detour index — Beijing’s services are more dispersed and detours longer than Shanghai’s
- ArticleScore-frequency tables · Beta fitting · 985 opportunity ratio — high-pressure provinces split into narrow- and wide-access structures
- ArticleCBDB · name-presence rate · character frequency — named women are a small share of the women recorded at all
- ArticleDialect distance · road distance · clustering — one province often holds several cultural regions
- ArticleCBDB · geocoding · latitude distribution · TGI — the recorded center shifts from the north in Sui–Tang to the lower Yangtze by the Song
Visual & motion 9
Women poets networkInteractive · CBDB × MQWW · kinship, social ties, collections
Historical figures networkInteractive · searchable relationships across CBDB records- Journeys of Tang & Song poetsInteractive · scroll-driven bilingual map · 360 poets, ~14,000 stops
City data visualArchive · built space, population fields, terrain, hydrology · 29 studies on this page- Film · 82 Tang poets’ recorded journeys, 617–907, on 3D terrain · 4:00
- Film · 280 poets from the Five Dynasties to the fall of the Song, 907–1279 · 5:34
- Motion · lighthouses and navigation lights, published light cycles · 0:30
- Motion · FY-4A LMI optical lightning events, June–August 2023 · 0:20
- Motion · moon phase, solar terms, Quarry Bay tide · 2:41
Tools 2
- ExtensionCaption HarborLocal-first YouTube learning extension: bilingual captions, transcription, contextual AI explanations, vocabulary and notes · beta, built with AI from prototype to release
- Open sourcecodegFrontend contributor to a multi-agent coding workbench (React / TypeScript): inline rendering of HTML visualizations from any coding agent, and sidebar filtering · merged and shipped in v0.32.3, built with coding agents from spec to review
Visual archiveWays of looking.29 visual studies +
Cities, landscapes & lives
01 / Built-space timelines
02 / Dialects & watersheds
04 / Life expectancy
05 / AI + Blender relief atlas
Four terrain studies built through an AI-assisted workflow, from geospatial preparation and composition to Blender shading and final cartographic refinement.
- 01Terrain dataDEM clipping, reprojection, and vertical exaggeration
- 02CompositionFraming, extent, and color studies drafted with AI
- 03Blender renderDisplacement, lighting, and shaded relief
- 04Cartographic finishLabels, borders, and color correction
Seven short demos from the city building-age series, kept together as one moving layer of the archive.
Built-space timelines / 10 citiesSelected image set from the City Data Visual repositorySources & attribution ↗
Photography
Elsewhere.
Eleven city archives. Click a city to open its wall.
Also